Real Estate Trends

Beginning with home sales on a national basis, sales of existing homes are up 36 percent as of November 2009 (the most recent real estate figures available) from their lowest point in January 2009. Home sales in Louisville are up a more modest 17.4 percent over the same period. It’s important to note, however, that while Louisville’s real estate market had suffered setbacks consistent with many other areas of the country, these setbacks were mostly not as deep or severe. This puts Louisville’s realty market recovery in a much more favorable and accurate light.

Median sales price is another barometer of the local and national housing market that real estate professionals and economists use to determine real estate trends. Nationally, median selling prices of existing single-family homes are down 4.3 percent year-over-year from the previous November with an average selling price of $171,900. The median selling price of Louisville homes for sale is up 1.1 percent or $1,350 to $126,750. Again, Louisville’s gains are modest but with so many housing markets across the country reeling from the housing crisis, Louisville real estate is outperforming many other markets, at least for now.

Another important indicator of a market’s health is the number of foreclosures. Foreclosures negatively impact housing values and create a host of other problems and some neighborhoods across the country have whole streets with abandoned homes with only one or two occupied. Nationally, the news on foreclosures is grim with another wave of foreclosures expected in mid-2010 as another round of adjustable-rate mortgage rate increases is due. In the third quarter of 2009, foreclosure filings, which include bank repossessions, default notices and scheduled auctions, rose 5 percent from the second quarter to 937,840 properties repossessed. This increase in foreclosures was up a very discouraging 23 percent from the third quarter in 2008.

Louisville foreclosures are not as dire as the rest of the country, but still a serious problem for homeowners, lenders and others. In the latest report available, the Louisville real estate market suffered 1,496 foreclosures from September to November 2009. That is still a very high figure for the Louisville metropolitan area; however, compared to comparably sized cities across the country, Louisville is faring far better than most. Part of the reason for this is Louisville real estate values didn’t escalate as steeply over the previous years as many other markets around the country did, so when they fell, they didn’t fall as hard.

Overall, the market isn’t great, but very few markets across the country are at the moment. Louisville real estate prices have stabilized for now and are showing modest appreciation. Whether the Louisville realty market will continue to improve in the coming year is difficult to forecast for now, but some Louisville insiders are confident that it will.

When identifying real estate trends, you may find yourself a bit discouraged. The market making a comeback is contingent upon finding a solution to the foreclosure issue, which is keeping prices low and buyer confidence even lower. And according to a report published by Standard & Poor’s, home prices will fall an additional 7 to 10 percent throughout 2011. But there are a few trends to watch in 2011 that brighten everyone’s prospects.

1. McMansions are McOver
One of the biggest real estate trends seen lately has to do with taste and logistics. Not only are empty nest baby boomers leaving behind their high-maintenance properties for urban center lofts and apartments, but the younger generation of home-buyers doesn’t want Mom and Dad’s giant prefab home in the suburbs. They want smaller, vibrant, walk-able neighborhoods with community amenities like local shops and parks. This means larger homes could sit on the market unwanted for a very long time.

2. Home-buyers want longevity
In the past, a couple would buy a “starter home,” and upgrade after a few years of investing equity. Now, a first time home-buyer is planning to stay in their home a minimum of 10 years. The home is a home in the original sense, not just the housing boom “investment” of years past. Repeat buyers are looking for 15 years or more in their next property. This is one of the real estate trends you can expect to see more of in 2011.

3. More Foreclosures Coming
While they slowed down in October thanks to the “robo-signing scandal,” according to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, there will be 2.25 million foreclosures in 2011 — the same as 2010 — and another 2 million in 2012.

4. Rates stay low while lending gets harder to come by
According to the Mortgage Bankers Associates, included in important real estate trends for 2011 is the expected increase of fixed mortgage rates to 5.1 percent by the end of the year. This is due in large part to the Federal Reserve buying $600 billion of Treasuries to keep interest rates low and boost economic growth. As great as that is for a buyer, the recently raised lending standards have made it harder to get financing. While some argue this is holding back the market recovery, others consider it a necessary evil. Over-extended buyers that were given loans exceeding their means by irresponsible lending companies caused much of the housing crisis. Tightening the standards is a logical backlash to this practice and it’s dire consequences.

5. New construction stays low
The effect of the current market’s real estate trends are felt nowhere harsher than in new construction. The combination of unemployment, plus an influx in inexpensive foreclosures and short sale properties means fewer new homes need to be built to accommodate demand. In 2009, only 550,000 new housing units were built, compared to 2.1 million units at the peak of the housing bubble in 2005. Unfortunately this could mean a housing shortage in the near future.

6. Cash is King
Just like last year, investors with the capital available have a major advantage with all the current real estate trends. So many banks are holding so many foreclosed properties that all-cash offers are frequently being accepted over higher offers involving loans. For a traditional homebuyer, this means all offers must be made as attractive as possible, including large down payments and often making an offer close to or above the asking price.